Guide The Facts About Speculation

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Follow Us Twitter Facebook. Speculative bubbles emerge now and again on financial markets. Fairly recent examples are the housing bubble bursting in causing the financial crisis and the dot. History offers a list of financial bubbles, dating all the way back to the first documented, speculative bubble: the Dutch tulip bulb bubble in — Brunnermeier and Schnabel When financial bubbles emerge, they are often driven by stories of huge monetary gains waiting ahead, accompanied with narratives to the effect that this time around , it will be different than the previous bubbles after which investors and speculators suffered great losses when the bust came Schiller This kind of narrative may trump more realistic assessments of the worth of a given asset.

Bubbles on financial markets are defined as situations in which financial assets are systematically traded at prices far exceeding their fundamental value Vogel If tech-shares, toxic mortgages and subprimes, or tulip bulbs are traded at prices above and beyond a realistic assessment of their worth, then the price has inflated artificially through speculation and no longer represents the underlying worth of whatever the asset being traded.

If unaware of the fundamental value of an asset, investors might just end up paying far too high a price for very little or for nothing at all. Asset with news item.

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Price with amount of attention. The fundamental value with political substance. Citizens and journalists alike, as well as politicians especially if they are under pressure , often call for political substance. Political substance concerns solving societal problems and improving social, economic, or cultural conditions in the long run.

Politics is much about creating results; otherwise, it simply crumples to reality TV, horse races, and drama. The fundamental value of a political item—its political substance—may be established by its capacity to represent a societal problem. By being placed on the agenda, light may be shed upon it; it may be deliberated and acted upon. Trivially there are ideologically founded differences among various political parties pertaining to what should be considered societal problems and their order of priority.

In Denmark, for instance, equality is seen as more of a problem by the left wing than by the right wing, and the opposite goes for high taxes. However, there is still quite a consensus that political issues such as unemployment, immigration, crime, and domestic violence are indeed social problems that need solving. These problems will not get solved politically, if the political debate loses its substance. If too much attention is spent on symbolic messages, signal policies, and debating for the sake of debacle without any potential of reaching concrete results, other than perhaps a further polarization of the political fronts.

Swaths of the scarce attention in such cases go to political items with no actual content. What is being debated and sucks all oxygen out of the public space in a political bubble is not, for instance, how best to solve integration problems or address the current refugee and immigration crisis.

Political bubbles thrive particularly well in polarized opinion environments where the good story or the recognizable symbol gives easy and direct access to being for or against something: for or against the politics of Washington, for or against the EU, etc. The angrier the other wing, the more sturdy and perhaps even vigorous you may seem to your followers.


Thus, politicians may obtain an advantage from stimulating bubbles with spectacular, controversial, and provocative messages. Political bubbles may grant speculatively yield on the image and identity front, but not have much yield to society in terms of tangible political results, rather quite the contrary. The latter would require real political investment in substance, not speculating in the market of attention for political products.

The British economist John Maynard Keynes — defined the difference between speculation and investment:. These models are designed to provide scenarios of the future that can be used for guiding decisions about what policies to follow, such as how to reduce undesirable climate impacts and build resilience, and to plan for the future in the most cost-effective ways.

News outlets in Germany had said a €100 million deal for the Manchester City winger was done.

The same is true for the actual difficulties regarding receiving seekers of asylum, immigration, and integration of folk and fugitives. When professionalism, experience, and scientific evidence are replaced with symbolic politics coupled with the value of signals and speculation in attention, the fight against parallel societies, ghettoization, social control, radicalization, extremism, and terrorism hold only marginal chances of successful solutions. So how are we doing? Well, it sure is uphill. Evidence from anthropogenic global warming is not the only kind of evidence being called into question on political grounds; the weather itself gets contested.

Not too long ago, it was turned into a political question whether the sun was shining or not on a special occasion. Vass, T. Elholm : p. Samuelsen, A. Verifiziert Taylor, A. Olsen, T. Edelman : p.

Quoted from Peterson Trenberth, K. The images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the chapter's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the chapter's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.

Parramatta shooting: speculation is plentiful but the facts are few | Australia news | The Guardian

Skip to main content Skip to sections. Advertisement Hide. Attention Speculation and Political Bubbles. Open Access. First Online: 08 September Download chapter PDF. One case in point is how an episode of the world famous Danish TV series Borgen thematizing prostitution was used as political leverage for a bill to decriminalize prostitution in the real Borgen, the Danish Parliament at Christiansborg.

He actually boasted that it was he who forced Obama to prove in to be rightfully American by showing his birth certificate.

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While this wiki was created to accommodate both, for the sake of clarity, they should be clearly marked. The primary article page for each topic should be confined to factual knowledge i. When possible, make a note of book title and chapter where a fact was found. If you wish to discuss speculation or fan theories about a topic, please use the Speculation:Topic name page to write.

Be sure to explain why you think it's possible these ideas could be true - that way, we can all follow along and come up with new ideas to surround yours.